top of page
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Podcast on Spotify!
  • Apple Podcasts
  • iHeart Podcasts!
  • Amazon Podcasts

Disagreeing With "The Oracle of Omaha" is Practically Sacrilegious... but I'm Doing It

  • Writer: David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU®
    David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU®
  • Apr 25, 2018
  • 2 min read

Updated: Jan 18, 2023



Warren Buffett claims that if you invested $114 in the first quarter of 1942 in the S&P 500 Index - AND HELD IT - you would have over $400,000 today (1st Quarter 2018).

Let's take a look at those numbers, shall we? First, it's 76 years between 1942 and 2018. Here's the problem: demographics, political change, economic policies... all change the dynamics. It's so easy to look backwards and say "Here, do what I did and you'll be a successful investor."

But when everything changes, and it is changing more rapidly than ever before... we can't rely on old advice like this.

Second, the annual compounded rate of return would've been 11.33% AFTER expenses. It's important to make that distinction because expenses are always a factor when making investment decisions.

Now, Mr. Buffett DID say that big management or brokerage fees would eat up a lot of those returns. He said it as though it's Wall Street's fault for charging what they charge, but the marketplace changes over time.

Even today, you CAN'T invest directly into the S&P 500 Index. It's not possible. Today, the most popular way to invest as closely as possible is in an equity investment called an "Exchange Traded Fund" or "ETF". And they finally got traction going in the mid-90's or so. The SPY fund (the most popular way to "invest in the S&P 500 Index") got its start in 1993. It obviously wasn't around in 1942. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund

Mutual funds didn't really 'take off' until the 1950's or so. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_fund

That means that back in 1942, you'd have to invest in each INDIVIDUAL STOCK of the S&P 500 index, and trade them out as the S&P 500 index would trade them - each trade having transaction costs. Unless you paid those transaction costs "out of pocket" they would continue to erode against your returns.

Now, I don't know what the average stock trade cost would be back then, but you could bet that it would eat up a LOT of that initial $114 and the ongoing returns since then.

So, what's my point: Some of these articles - even by world-class investors like Mr. Buffett - require a more "in-depth" look to evaluate the truth behind them. I cannot say that I would rival Mr. Warren Buffett's expertise in investing as he is one of the richest men in the world. But some advice articles, like this one, need to be examined more closely for the "holes" in the logic.

Today, there are new ways to get the upside of an underlying stock market index, without the downside risks. Strategies like this help to "lock in" your earnings and create more safety, security, and guarantees in one's total financial life.

Regulatory Disclosure: Not Legal, Tax, or Securities Investment Advice

The material discussed on this website is provided for general illustration and informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, tax, or securities investment advice, nor does it represent a recommendation of any specific company or product.

 

David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU® is not registered nor licensed as a Registered Investment Advisory Firm (RIA), Investment Adviser Representative (IAR), or Registered Representative (RR) with any broker/dealer firm, and is therefore not registered with nor supervised by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or any state securities regulatory authority.

 

Accordingly, David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU® does not provide securities investment advice, including but not limited to recommendations regarding the buying, selling, or holding of securities; securities risk analysis; or the asset allocation of securities portfolios. For advice regarding securities investments, clients should consult a properly licensed and registered investment professional licensed to do business in their state.

 

Educational & Non-Securities Financial Information

David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU® does provide general financial and investment-related information for educational purposes only and may propose alternative financial strategies that do not involve securities. Discussion of account types (including IRS-regulated retirement plans) is considered incidental to broader planning concepts and does not constitute advice regarding the underlying securities held within such accounts.

 

Tax & Legal Coordination Disclosure

Any discussion of tax matters is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is incidental to broader financial planning concepts. David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU® does not provide tax preparation, tax filing, or formal tax advice and does not prepare or file tax returns.

 

Clients should consult a licensed CPA, Enrolled Agent, or tax attorney regarding their specific tax situation. While prudent planning includes identifying potential tax implications, the responsibility for reporting, integrating, or reflecting such matters on any tax return rests solely with the client and their licensed tax professional.

For legal or tax services, please consult a licensed professional in your state. Information is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, individual circumstances vary, and no information should be relied upon without individualized professional coordination.

Licensing & Business Disclosure

David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU® is a licensed life, accident, and health insurance agent in California (CA Insurance License #0E54187) and may be licensed to conduct business in other states, where appropriate.

 

David Kinder Insurance and Financial Wealth Solutions is the marketing name for David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU® and is not affiliated with any other company.

 

David Kinder Financial Consulting and Analysis Services offers separate financial analysis and consulting services provided pursuant to written engagement agreements and on a fee-for-service basis. Fees for consulting services do not offset commissions earned through product placement. Any recommendations may be implemented with any licensed professional of the client’s choosing, including David Kinder Insurance and Financial Wealth Solutions.

 

Fiduciary & Best Interest Disclosure

Fee-based consulting services are provided solely pursuant to a written engagement agreement and the payment of agreed-upon fees. When acting under such an engagement agreement, services are provided in a fiduciary capacity, limited strictly to the scope of services expressly defined in that agreement.

 

Certain services or recommendations—whether provided within a fee-based consulting engagement or outside of one—may involve the implementation of products or solutions offered by unaffiliated third-party providers. In such cases, compensation may be received through consulting fees paid by the client, commissions paid by third-party product providers, or a combination thereof.

 

When services are provided pursuant to a fiduciary engagement agreement, and commissions or other transaction-based compensation may be received in connection with the placement of products offered by outside companies, such compensation will be fully disclosed in advance, including the nature and source of the compensation, the role of the consultant, and any associated material conflicts of interest, and client consent will be obtained prior to implementation.

 

Outside of a fee-based consulting engagement, services may include education, analysis, and product-related recommendations. In such circumstances, no fiduciary relationship is implied or assumed unless expressly agreed to in writing.

 

Regardless of compensation structure or engagement type, all recommendations and guidance are provided in the client’s best interest, based on stated objectives, financial circumstances, and risk considerations, with appropriate disclosure of material conflicts of interest and compensation arrangements.

Additional information regarding business structure, licensing, compensation arrangements, and implementation options is provided in the Business & Licensing Disclosure.

 

Insurance & Annuity Disclosures

Insurance and annuity product guarantees are backed solely by the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing company. Guarantees do not apply to the performance of any index option within a fixed indexed insurance contract or to projected dividends of participating insurance policies.

 

Planning outcomes are not guaranteed and are subject to individual circumstances. Listing company client-access links under the “Client Access” menu does not constitute endorsement, approval, or review of this website or its content by such companies. Links are provided for client convenience only.

 

Designation & Trademark Notices

The RFC® designation is conferred by the International Association of Registered Financial Consultants and is used by permission.

CLU® and ChFC® are marks of The American College of Financial Services, which reserves sole rights to their use.

© David H. Kinder, RFC®, ChFC®, CLU®, doing business as David Kinder Insurance and Financial Wealth Solutions; All Rights Reserved
New client engagements are established by referral or through structured educational programs.
Unsolicited inquiries are not accepted.


Privacy Policy | Accessibility Policy

bottom of page