Why You Need the Dow To Be At Over 44,400 Today...
Updated: Dec 28, 2019
Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (top 40 stocks) closed at over 26,000 for the first time.
Sure, I'm glad that through the hype of tax reform and the promise of funds held overseas will come back to invest in American infrastructure and jobs. I'm concerned that Americans might get a little too comfortable with this run up in the markets.
This video was created in January, 2012 and it claims that you would need the Dow at 27,000 in order to be on-pace for a simple 5% return AFTER inflation.
I did the math. Today, you would need the Dow at 44,400 (or higher) after inflation (3% per year) to have yielded a 5% real rate of return.
Will the market continue on its upward climb? I don't know. We have some nice things in play, and some very questionable things. This whole "Bitcoin" thing is another bubble that has severe volatility. Apparently it lost 50% of its value in the last day or so.
Here is economist Harry Dent's quick video on Bitcoin's 50% drop and a comparison to the "Dot-Com" bubble: https://www.facebook.com/EconomyMarkets/videos/1681643061886877/
Let's not forget about demographic economics. I have another blog post with Tom Hegna's long-term economic forecast here and I haven't seen anything to suggest that it isn't going to happen: https://david82496.wixsite.com/davidkinderfinancial/single-post/2018/01/02/Tom-Hegnas-2018-Economic-Commentary
Just be aware of what's going on and don't invest any more than you can afford to lose. For California residents, I can help you to prepare a financial strategy with safety, security, and guarantees.
David H. Kinder | Lifetime Tax & Wealth Educator
Dynamic Advanced Insurance, Financial, and Retirement Strategies